当前三四线商品房问题让各地不甚头痛，为了快速消减商品房，各地主要想了两个法子：
第一，城里人老房子拆了，原址不再盖住宅，鼓励市民在现有商品房中挑选，选中了还有一定的契税减免和每平米几百元的补贴。
第二，鼓励农民就近在县城里买房，给农民买房的优惠其实也不低，比如买房后可为子女自由选择学校就读等。
在农村耕地确权方面，目前虽然只进行到村集体经营性资产这一块，但按照目前的计划，接下来要确quan的就是耕地和宅基地。其中耕地应该在宅基地前面。
村集体经营资产按人确quan，这将在未来五年内完成，届时农民每年将获得一笔稳定的财产性收入，经营得当的话，每人每年获得2000多元的收入不成问题。
农民未来只承包，不经营
接下来就是耕地确quan了，这里将更加复杂，农民仍然拥有绝对的承包quan，但考虑到相当多的农民常年外出打工，经营quan有可能被流转。说白了，地仍然归你承包，但在农村集约化经营的趋势下，这些土地由职业农民或类似机构来完成耕种，农民依据“承包权”来参与分享耕地的产出。
按理说这是好事，在农村劳动力老年化的趋势下，大量农地效益不佳，让种田大户耕种，自己参与分享，既维持了耕地，又能获得一笔收入。
但问题是，按目前的套路，农民将土地流转出去后，将很难再回到手中，在实际操作过程中，这种“不可逆”的风险不得不引起我们的重视：
农民目前可以从打工来获得家庭绝大部分收入，老了之后返乡有可能无法从自己承包的土地上获得任何产出，因为耕地的经营quan已经流转出去了。不仅老了，还有的农民进城讨生活失意，也会选择回农村继续从事农业。这种“万一”的可能性不得不考虑。
上面所说的主要指在外打工的农民，他们虽然握有土地承包quan，但未来基本上土地的使用quan已不归他们了。这部分农民进城买房定居成功还好，如果定居失意返乡，等待他们的将是尴尬和焦虑，因为他们已没有地可耕种了。
失去耕地经营quan，仅拥有承包quan的农民，基本上等同于失地农民。
放弃宅基地
在鼓励农民进城买房方面，还有的地方正在积极鼓励农民放弃宅基地，对于放弃宅基地的农民，当地将折算给予买房补贴，比如某地农民可以将宅基地折算成房款，某地农民放弃宅基地可获得每亩不低于5万元现金（多少宅基地有一亩以上的？）
这招比上面放弃耕地经营quan更狠。因为他直接来了一招“釜底抽薪”，属于一次性放弃宅基地，未来也不可能要回，没了宅基地，你会回乡耕地吗？
从长远趋势来看，未来会有大量的农民进城买房，而且会有相当多的农民不会返回农村，风险在于“万一”，万一农民进城有了套房子，却没有生计，农民们必须给自己留好返乡的退路，而返乡的诉求就是继续使用宅基地和经营自己的土地。
当前的套路就是鼓励农民放弃宅基地，然后土地的经营quan也被流转出去，农民只保留承包quan。这无疑是断了农民的“后路”。
鼓励农民进城买房可以，但这种方式却有点不合适。
本文为头条号作者原创，未经授权，不得转载。
农民
农村
购房
三农
楼市风云录
房产从业者，2016年上半年房产领域最具原创力头条号十强。
经济越好，有房的人越少，未来你还会买房吗？
未来4年，深圳将为31万特殊人群提供住房
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riot.mount('wtopbar', {
home: false,
userInfo: userInfo
});
riot.mount('login');
riot.mount('wsearch');
riot.mount('snsbox',{
share_url:"http://toutiao.com/item/6374607370428875265",
abstract:"当前三四线商品房问题让各地不甚头痛，为了快速消减商品房，各地主要想了两个法子：第一，城里人老房子拆了，原址不再盖住宅，鼓励市民在现有商品房中挑选，选中了还有一定的契税减免和每平米几百元的补贴。".replace(//ig, ''),
group_id:"6374607370428875265",
comments_count: utils.numFormat('0', 1, 'en'),
fix: true
});
riot.mount('hotVideo');
riot.mount('hotPicture');
riot.mount('feedback');
riot.mount('comment', {
group_id: '6374607370428875265',
item_id: '6374607370428875265' || '6374607370428875265',
comments_count: utils.numCutByComma('0'),
userInfo: userInfo,
ban_comment: 0 + 0
});
riot.mount('relatedChannel', {
tag: '__all__'
});
riot.mount('adqihu');
BAIDU_CLB_fillSlotAsync('u2793998', 'J_ad_baidu_top1');
BAIDU_CLB_fillSlotAsync('u2794021', 'J_ad_baidu_top2');
BAIDU_CLB_fillSlotAsync('u2643457', 'J_ad_baidu_bottom');
